Fed and ECB Cut by 25bp as Tokyo Tightens — European Banks Rally on the Divergence

Central Bank Rates
Rate Current Chg
Fed Funds Rate 3.50% decreased ▼ −0.25
ECB Main Refi Rate 2.75% decreased ▼ −0.25
BoE Bank Rate 3.75% unchanged
BoJ Policy Rate 0.50% increased ▲ +0.25
SNB Policy Rate 1.25% unchanged
PBoC LPR (1Y) 3.10% decreased ▼ −0.10
Global Indices
Index Close Wk Chg
STOXX Europe 600 Banks 218.4 increased ▲ +2.3%
KBW Nasdaq Bank Index 112.7 increased ▲ +1.1%
FTSE 350 Banks 4,287 increased ▲ +1.8%
Nikkei 225 Financials 612.3 decreased ▼ −0.4%
S&P 500 5,842 increased ▲ +0.7%
MSCI EM Financials 348.9 increased ▲ +1.5%
Currencies & Commodities
Pair / Asset Spot Wk Chg
EUR/USD 1.0842 increased ▲ +0.3%
GBP/USD 1.2715 increased ▲ +0.2%
USD/JPY 148.32 decreased ▼ −1.1%
DXY Index 103.84 decreased ▼ −0.5%
Gold (XAU/USD) $2,184 increased ▲ +1.2%
Bitcoin $72,450 increased ▲ +4.8%
A 325bp Gulf: From Tokyo's 0.50% to London's 3.75%

Data as of 9 March 2026. Rates in percent.

STOXX 600 Banks Lead at +2.3% — Only Tokyo in the Red

Weekly change in percent. Banking & financial indices.

UniCredit Surges 6.8% on Raised Guidance; SVB Slides 8.3% on CRE Fears

▲ Gainers
Stock Price Wk Chg
UniCredit (UCG.MI) €38.72 increased ▲ +6.8%
Barclays (BARC.L) £2.14 increased ▲ +5.2%
BNP Paribas (BNP.PA) €68.45 increased ▲ +4.1%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) $198.30 increased ▲ +3.4%
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) €3.52 increased ▲ +3.1%

European banks led gains on improved rate outlook and strong Q4 earnings. UniCredit surged after raising its FY2026 guidance above analyst consensus.

▼ Decliners
Stock Price Wk Chg
SVB Financial (SIVB) $42.15 decreased ▼ −8.3%
Credit Suisse (CSGN.SW) CHF 1.82 decreased ▼ −5.7%
Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE) €14.28 decreased ▼ −3.2%
Standard Chartered (STAN.L) £7.84 decreased ▼ −2.9%
Citigroup (C) $58.92 decreased ▼ −2.1%

Regional US banks faced renewed pressure amid commercial real estate concerns. Deutsche Bank declined on reports of increased litigation provisions.

Europe's Top Five Gained 3–7%; Five Decliners Lost 2–8%

Top gainers and decliners among major global banking stocks this week.

The Curve Normalises: Short-End Yields Drop 76bp as Fed Easing Feeds Through

Current Curve (3.42–4.02%) vs. Six Months Ago (4.18–4.10%)

Source: US Treasury Department. Data as of 7 March 2026.

Inversion Over: 10Y–2Y Spread Swings from –0.42pp to +0.20pp

Positive spread indicates normal curve. Negative indicates inversion.

Dollar Weakens as Bitcoin Jumps 4.8% and Gold Gains 1.2%

Weekly percentage change. Major pairs and safe-haven assets.

Fintech Funding Hits $18.4B — Up 52% in Two Years — as Bank Margins Reach a Post-Crisis Peak

From $12.1B to $18.4B: Eight Quarters of Accelerating Deployment

Source: CB Insights, PitchBook. In billions USD.

NIM Climbs from 1.42% to 2.34% — Highest Since 2007

Average NIM for the 20 largest European lenders, quarterly.

The Week in Figures

$4.2T
Global Bank Reserves

Aggregate reserves held by G20 central banks, down 8% from the 2022 peak as quantitative tightening continues.

94.2%
AI Credit Score Accuracy

GPT-class models now match or exceed traditional scorecards on 12-month default prediction across all FICO bands.

1,247
EU AI Act Filings (YTD)

Financial institutions have filed more algorithmic transparency reports than any other sector this year.

2.34%
European Bank NIM

Average net interest margin among the twenty largest European lenders — the highest since the pre-crisis era of 2007.

$18.4B
Fintech VC Funding (Q4)

Venture capital deployed into financial technology startups globally, a 12.1% increase quarter over quarter.

142ms
Avg. Algo Trade Latency

Down 18ms from last quarter. The gap between the fastest and slowest G-SIBs has narrowed to 34ms.

In-Depth Analysis