Thirty-Nine Trillion and Counting: America's Wartime Debt Spiral
The US national debt crossed $39 trillion as the Iran war costs one billion dollars per day. Treasury bonds are losing their safe-haven bid.
Data, figures, and the numbers that matter
| Rate | Current | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.50% | decreased ▼ −0.25 |
| ECB Main Refi Rate | 2.75% | decreased ▼ −0.25 |
| BoE Bank Rate | 3.75% | unchanged — |
| BoJ Policy Rate | 0.50% | increased ▲ +0.25 |
| SNB Policy Rate | 1.25% | unchanged — |
| PBoC LPR (1Y) | 3.10% | decreased ▼ −0.10 |
| Index | Close | Wk Chg |
|---|---|---|
| STOXX Europe 600 Banks | 218.4 | increased ▲ +2.3% |
| KBW Nasdaq Bank Index | 112.7 | increased ▲ +1.1% |
| FTSE 350 Banks | 4,287 | increased ▲ +1.8% |
| Nikkei 225 Financials | 612.3 | decreased ▼ −0.4% |
| S&P 500 | 5,842 | increased ▲ +0.7% |
| MSCI EM Financials | 348.9 | increased ▲ +1.5% |
| Pair / Asset | Spot | Wk Chg |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.0842 | increased ▲ +0.3% |
| GBP/USD | 1.2715 | increased ▲ +0.2% |
| USD/JPY | 148.32 | decreased ▼ −1.1% |
| DXY Index | 103.84 | decreased ▼ −0.5% |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $2,184 | increased ▲ +1.2% |
| Bitcoin | $72,450 | increased ▲ +4.8% |
Data as of 9 March 2026. Rates in percent.
Weekly change in percent. Banking & financial indices.
| Stock | Price | Wk Chg |
|---|---|---|
| UniCredit (UCG.MI) | €38.72 | increased ▲ +6.8% |
| Barclays (BARC.L) | £2.14 | increased ▲ +5.2% |
| BNP Paribas (BNP.PA) | €68.45 | increased ▲ +4.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | $198.30 | increased ▲ +3.4% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI) | €3.52 | increased ▲ +3.1% |
European banks led gains on improved rate outlook and strong Q4 earnings. UniCredit surged after raising its FY2026 guidance above analyst consensus.
| Stock | Price | Wk Chg |
|---|---|---|
| SVB Financial (SIVB) | $42.15 | decreased ▼ −8.3% |
| Credit Suisse (CSGN.SW) | CHF 1.82 | decreased ▼ −5.7% |
| Deutsche Bank (DBK.DE) | €14.28 | decreased ▼ −3.2% |
| Standard Chartered (STAN.L) | £7.84 | decreased ▼ −2.9% |
| Citigroup (C) | $58.92 | decreased ▼ −2.1% |
Regional US banks faced renewed pressure amid commercial real estate concerns. Deutsche Bank declined on reports of increased litigation provisions.
Top gainers and decliners among major global banking stocks this week.
Source: US Treasury Department. Data as of 7 March 2026.
Positive spread indicates normal curve. Negative indicates inversion.
Weekly percentage change. Major pairs and safe-haven assets.
Source: CB Insights, PitchBook. In billions USD.
Average NIM for the 20 largest European lenders, quarterly.
Aggregate reserves held by G20 central banks, down 8% from the 2022 peak as quantitative tightening continues.
GPT-class models now match or exceed traditional scorecards on 12-month default prediction across all FICO bands.
Financial institutions have filed more algorithmic transparency reports than any other sector this year.
Average net interest margin among the twenty largest European lenders — the highest since the pre-crisis era of 2007.
Venture capital deployed into financial technology startups globally, a 12.1% increase quarter over quarter.
Down 18ms from last quarter. The gap between the fastest and slowest G-SIBs has narrowed to 34ms.
The US national debt crossed $39 trillion as the Iran war costs one billion dollars per day. Treasury bonds are losing their safe-haven bid.
EU/EEA aggregate net interest margins peaked at 1.69% in the first quarter of 2024, a level not seen since 2008. Clara Moth examines the data and asks whether AI-driven credit pricing is structural, or merely cyclical.